NBA DFS Strategy

Welcome to the NBA DFS slate. It's been a profitable season so far, where we've missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That's all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.

If you're going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game DFS slate following the game in Berlin, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash games unless you're willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it's about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I'm here. Let's break down the top plays for this slate.

Boston's Pace Advantage

To start this slate off, it feels that Boston is a pretty easy play with the biggest pace-up spot you can find in any game this season. That's right, we have finally reached team one versus team 30 in pacing. Miami averages nearly 10 possessions more than Boston, so think of all that extra back and forth.

I know I make a big deal about pacing, but any given bucket could be the difference between cashing and not. Jaylen Brown is off the injury report after missing the last game, so his injury designation on DraftKings might limit his rostership a little bit. I don't expect any news to come, but stay updated because Brown should see around 35 minutes and get to 45 or so fantasy points.

Giannis as Ceiling Play

While technically considered questionable, I don't doubt that Giannis Antetokounmpo is your ceiling play against San Antonio. The Spurs' defense is a respectable top-10 unit, but it's hard to stop Antetokounmpo. I haven't really gone to the Bucks forward much this year simply because I felt I could keep finding better options, but that's difficult on this slate.

Antetokounmpo has gone over 50 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, including a 64-point effort. On this slate, 50+ points feels like it will make an optimal lineup, putting him at a near 50/50 chance of being a must in your lineup. Considering he's less than 40% rostered in early projections, Antetokounmpo remains a solid leverage play.

Mavericks Matchup

The Mavericks are a quintessential wait-and-see team because who knows their starting lineup right now. With multiple questionable players and playing in the second game of a back-to-back, a lot is up in the air. What isn't questionable is their opponent.

Utah is one of the best teams you can ask for, fantasy-wise, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opponents on the season and the most to small forwards. Their defense ranks dead last, and they are the fourth-fastest NBA team in possession rate. If Washington plays, he should be expected to have a 25% usage rate and around 30 minutes of playing time, which is a pretty high floor at home against Utah.

Pritchard's Consistency

It feels like Payton Pritchard always ends up in this category. Even with Jaylen Brown back in the lineup, I still find myself going to the former Oregon Duck. Pritchard continues to see his price increase, but with the pace up spot and a 25% usage rate, his floor stays high.

Pritchard has scored 25+ fantasy points in 17 of his last 18 games and over 30 in seven of his last eight matchups. I project him closer to 35, and it feels more likely we'll see a ceiling output because we have seen him capable of posting a 50-burger.

Fox as Leverage Play

I originally wanted to put De'Aaron Fox as a core play, but then I saw his rostership projection at barely double-digits and re-evaluated. I guess you could say the Bucks are a slow team, but their defense is a bottom-third unit that only ranks worse in their last 10 games.

That puts Fox in a prime spot to go over 40 and even 50 fantasy points with an efficient evening. The Spurs guard has consistently played 33+ minutes in recent games, and he's seen a solid usage rate of 26%. I simply think with the top-heavy guards, few will trickle down to Fox for rostership. That's a mistake, making him a solid leverage play.

Center Options

I don't exactly trust Alperen Sengun to have a great game, but I do trust his chance of having a good game more than his current rostership projection. Oklahoma City's defense is tough as nails, ranking first on the season and in recent play, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers this year. That's not great.

However, the opportunity cost is potentially high given the lack of centers on this slate. You can get to Neemias Queta or a still not 100% Victor Wembanyama, but for pure points, Sengun might be your best bet. Considering he's below 20% rostered, make sure to sprinkle him into large-field GPPs.

Value Plays

Monitor whether Dru Smith or Pelle Larsson gets the start. Either or, they both offer solid value. I'm generally out on Miami players, especially with Tyler Herro back and the extreme pace down spot for the Heat. Smith and Larsson are cheap enough to make it worth it.

Neither breaks the bank, and we saw Smith and Larsson both go over 20 fantasy points earlier. That's what you're hoping for here. With Davion Mitchell, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jović all dealing with some form of injury, these two sub-$5,000 plays should provide a solid return on investment (ROI).

Late Swap Advantage

If things fall the right way, Jaden Hardy might be the best pure value play. We've covered Utah. Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams and Klay Thompson qualify here, depending on who sits, but it's looking like Hardy will see the starting lineup. It appears Max Christie, Cooper Flagg and Daniel Gafford will all sit to go with Anthony Davis, who is already out. There are a lot of holes to fill.

This is the epitome of why late swapping is such an edge. One of these players is almost guaranteed to end up in the optimal lineup, and it's impossible to tell right now who that is. But after the slate starts and starters are announced, you'll get an edge putting the right value plays in, so stay sharp on your late swaps with these Dallas plays.